← Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
Fire EruptingTier 1
at Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 32.4% | -9.4 |
| Water Allies | 11.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.9% | +16.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.0% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Rogue | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embersong | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |